Micron's twin peaks: the demand changed completely, the profit did not

Micron's total company operating income. The 2022 peak was PCs, phones and the COVID shortage. The 2025 peak is HBM and AI. Different customers, different products, different decade of narrative. The profit is within 0.7%. In between, a $5,745M loss.

ChatGPT launched 30 November 2022, inside Micron's FY2023 Q1. The first full year of the AI boom was the worst year in the memory layer's history: five consecutive losing quarters totalling $6,873M, bottoming at a -62.4% operating margin. Micron did not become profitable again until CY2024Q1. It now captures roughly a quarter of all AI-attributable operating profit in the listed AI stack. Total company operating income, no AI attribution: "AI revenue" in 2022 is not a meaningful concept. Frames are the SEC's own calendar assignment. Accessions: 0000723125-22-000048, -23-000054, -24-000027, -25-000028.
Chart: Muhammad Tahir | mjtahir.substack.comSource: SEC XBRL, us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss, Micron 10-K filingsGet the dataCreated with Datawrapper