Is the crisis in the Middle East a 60 year wake up call for Philippine Energy?

Tensions in the Middle East stand to escalate as international news wires report Iran’s retaliatory attacks on commercial ships following the joint United States-Israel strikes late February. Unfortunately, the consequences do not remain in the region. They travel quickly through global energy markets and show up in everyday places such as local gasoline stations. A quick look at Philippine energy consumption data since the 1960s reveals why these shocks are so strongly felt. In 1965, oil dominated the Philippine energy mix, accounting for more than 92 percent of total energy consumption. Currently, that share has fallen to about 40 percent. At first glance, this appears to be progress. Looking closely, however, oil consumption has actually grown from 57.4 terawatt hours (TWh) in 1965 to roughly 267.6 in 2024. In other words, the country did not really became less dependent on oil but simply added other energy sources. A favorite energy source is coal, whose consumption in 1995 stood at about 19 TWh. By 2024, it had surged to over 271 TWh, making it the Philippines' largest single source of energy. Coal may have been conceived as a stable and inexpensive baseload alternative. But since coal and natural gas prices often rise alongside oil, it is no surprise why the country still feels the ripple when international energy prices spike. Renewable energy alternatives have grown, sure, but only recently and from a very small base. Solar, for instance, rose from just 0.04 units in 2014 to about 9.2 TWh in 2024, while wind reached roughly 3.2 TWh in the same period. Moreover, solar and wind barely made a dent in the energy mix until 2015. If not a wake up call, the current crisis should remind at least that the Philippines remains tethered to fragile global supply chains and geopolitical shifts. To break this cycle, the country must move beyond simply exploring new sources and instead commit to an aggressive, prescriptive transition toward indigenous energy production.